Neutral interest rate

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The neutral interest rate is the growth rate of the money supply that neither increases nor decreases the economic growth rate, and can be estimated by adding the central bank’s inflation target to the real trend rate of economic growth.  Also called the trend rate, this is the economy’s long-term sustainable real growth rate.  The trend rate is not directly observable and must be estimated. It also changes over time as structural conditions of the economy change. For example, after a prolonged period of heavy debt use, consumers may reduce consumption in order to reduce their levels of debt. This structural shift in the economy would reduce the trend rate.

See also: Policy rate

Synonyms:
Neutral rate of interest